The best solution for Europe is a nuclear hedging strategy. Europe should seek to maintain the nuclear umbrella of the United States while simultaneously developing a more robust and credible indigenous European deterrent.
Renewed European debate about nuclear deterrence, reflected in growing mistrust of the so-called American nuclear umbrella is a noteworthy consequence of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The stability of the transatlantic nuclear relationship fundamentally hinges on a single question: Will US leaders be willing to risk enormous damage to protect Europe – or a small European state? Whenever European leaders’ faith in US risk tolerance begins to shift to the negative, elite skepticism about the credibility of US nuclear guarantees rise. As Europeans continue to debate the credibility of American promises, Europe should continue to rely on the U.S. nuclear deterrent, while making plans for a European nuclear capability.
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